{"id":23374,"date":"2025-07-01T08:34:25","date_gmt":"2025-07-01T08:34:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lemonade.com\/blog\/?p=23374"},"modified":"2025-07-01T11:59:39","modified_gmt":"2025-07-01T11:59:39","slug":"lemonade-turns-ten","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lemonade.com\/blog\/lemonade-turns-ten\/","title":{"rendered":"Lemonade Turns 10"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

July 1, 2015, was our first day as Lemonade employees, and the start of an incredible journey for Shai, myself and our founding team. Five years later, on July 2, 2020, Lemonade IPO\u2019d and LMND was born. Today\u2019s double anniversary \ud83e\udd42 feels like the perfect moment to ask: Has our strategy delivered the edge we believed it would? And can it keep delivering wins in the decade ahead?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\"Plotting
(Plotting Lemonade, June 22, 2015, with Maya, Shai & Moshe)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IPO\"
(IPO July 2, 2020)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking Back<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The present has a funny way of coloring the past, rendering memories a little unreliable. Fortunately, we\u2019re not at the mercy of memories, as I\u2019ve dug up a couple of time capsules from the early days. One is the original deck we presented to the nascent team and board of directors, where the opening bullet was \u2018Technology, not Bureaucracy: Insurance powered by artificial intelligence, not artificial delays.\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Technology,<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I loved rediscovering this deck, since aside from cosmetic issues (colors, fonts, the moniker ‘peer-to-peer’) it\u2019s pretty much the same slides I\u2019ve delivered at every investor meeting and team meeting since!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

The second capsule I unearthed is an interview<\/a> I did in 2016 about the broader societal implications of AI, and rewatching it left me both heartened and unsettled by how little I\u2019ve updated my AI worldview since!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The point is that while today the letters \u2018AI\u2019 adorn every investor deck and earnings call, for us this isn\u2019t some newfangled acronym, or the latest technology fad. It\u2019s been the centralmost plank in our strategy and thinking from our very inception.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After a decade without pivots or restarts, I think the dividends of staying the course and compounding our investments in our AI-first strategy are clear: We went from standstill to over $1B in premiums in 10 years (Allstate\u2013which grew<\/em> faster than any other<\/em> incumbent<\/em> in their first decade\u2013was about 90% smaller, even after adjusting for inflation, on their 10th birthday). We\u2019re generating cash, accelerating growth, and scaling with ever greater efficiency. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the world of insurance, dominated by truisms like \u2018if it grows like a weed\u2013it is!\u2019 and \u2018shrinking to excellence,\u2019 seeing 10x growth coincide with rapidly improving economics is evidence of how fundamentally different Lemonade\u2019s AI-first approach is. That\u2019s our strategy at work, now evident in every line of our P&L.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Lemonade's
(LMND 2024 results)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Looking Forward<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s neat that we committed to AI ahead of the crowd, but now everyone is awake to the power of AI, and as the adage goes, \u2018past performance is no guarantee of future results.\u2019 So it\u2019s fair to ask whether our AI-first strategy will be more potent or less potent in the coming 5\u201310 years than it was in the past 5\u201310?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ve thought about this a fair bit, and my considered answer is a resounding \u2018more\u2026much more!\u2019 Let\u2019s consider why by evaluating two supposed threat vectors: incumbents catching up, and upstarts leapfrogging us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Catching up!<\/h3>\n\n\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s true, of course, that \u2018nearly every insurance company uses AI now,\u2019 but to paraphrase George Orwell, \u2018The term AI now has no meaning except insofar as it signifies something desirable.\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Berkshire\u2019s
(Berkshire\u2019s Ajit Jain and Warren Buffett)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The claim that companies like Berkshire Hathaway \u2018use AI\u2019 was both confirmed and eviscerated by Ajit Jain, Berkshire\u2019s Vice Chairman overseeing all of their insurance operations (including GEICO), at their Annual General Meeting less than two months ago:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\u201cPeople end up spending an enormous amount of money trying to chase the next new, fashionable thing\u2026Our approach is more to wait and see\u2026So right now, the individual insurance operations do dabble in AI\u2026but we have not yet made a conscious big-time effort.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

To which Warren Buffett added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI wouldn\u2019t trade everything that\u2019s developed in AI in the next 10 years for Ajit\u2014and I\u2019m not kidding about that.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Framing AI as a \u201cfashionable thing\u201d that some parts of the organization \u201cdabble in\u201d, but around which there is no \u201cconscious big-time effort\u201d – kinda says it all. And Buffett adding, with a straight face, that the financial impact of a single executive eclipses all the \u201cAI that\u2019s developed in the next 10 years\u201d, is a startling insight into the value attached to AI in the next decade by the nation\u2019s No. 2 insurance company.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nor are Berkshire and GEICO outliers. Erie Indemnity\u2019s CEO told investors they\u2019re \u2018taking a measured approach\u2019 to AI, and a MunichRe survey<\/a> of global P&C chiefs found that most CEOs are holding back investment in AI \u2018until the ROI is clearer.\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fairness, it\u2019s not like most incumbents have the option<\/em> of becoming AI-first. Legacy systems devour 70% of their IT spend<\/a>, and only 4% of millennials<\/a> will contemplate a career at their companies, so the AI-talent pipeline is dry. Meanwhile 97% of claims data<\/a> is unstructured, trapped in PDFs and idiosyncratic adjuster notes\u2014useless for large-scale model training. And going fully digital risks alienating their independent agents, who still place 62%<\/a> of all US P&C premiums.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And it\u2019s not just that \u201cusing\u201d or \u201cdabbling in\u201d AI is not the same as being AI-first or AI-native, it\u2019s that the differences are set to grow. Here\u2019s how I think about it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When you\u2019re walking down those endless airport corridors, you can take the moving walkway, or the adjacent standard path. Which you choose doesn\u2019t matter all that much, because the walkways move at a leisurely 1.4 mph, and are only about 100 meters long.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Walkways<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But imagine they were 100 miles long, and that their pace\u2013while moderate at first\u2013was constantly accelerating. Now whether you are on or off the walkway makes a huge and growing difference. Before too long, those on the walkway will be moving not 50% faster, but 10x faster, and then 100x faster than those who chose to stay on terra firma<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s how I think of being \u2018AI-native\u2019: to me it means that your company moves at the pace of AI. Not because you are exerting yourself more, but because the ground beneath you is moving at an accelerating pace. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s a simple litmus test: On April 16 OpenAI dropped their new reasoning model, o3. On April 17, did your company move faster as a result? Did your automation rate jump? Did productivity increase? How about when Gemini 2.5 dropped? Claude 4.0? OpenAI\u2019s new voice model? If not, you\u2019re not on the moving walkway\u2013you\u2019re dabbling and dawdling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In its celebrated forecast \u2018AI 2027<\/a>,\u2019 the nonprofit AI Futures Project<\/em> projected that the AI acceleration in software development will mean that in 2-3 years\u2019 time, a \u2018year passes every week.\u2019 Sam Altman wrote similarly of being able to do \u2018a decade\u2019s worth\u2019 of progress \u2018in a year, or a month.\u2019 That\u2019s the acceleration I\u2019m talking about.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I ran some numbers using the best forecasters\u2019 estimates of the rate of AI progress in coding, and reformulated these in terms of how many \u2018engineering-years\u2019 we can get for one million dollars – a number that hovers at around 5 today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Rate
(Sources: AI-2027 \u201cTimelines & Forecast\u201d (v Apr-2025); METR HCAST\/RE-Bench update (2024-Q1); Epoch AI Compute-Price Trends (2024 dataset); BLS OES \u201cSoftware Developers\u201d median comp (2023); AWS p4d (A100) on-demand pricing 2024-Apr.)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I concluded that it is entirely possible that before the decade is out, those that are moving at the pace of AI will find that the same $1m that buys one squad\u2019s worth of engineering firepower in 2025, will deliver the equivalent of 90,000 engineers in 2030, firepower available only to technological superpowers like Google today, at the cost of tens of billions of dollars. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

While I expect AI to accelerate coding faster than other professions, I fully expect legal, underwriting, finance, marketing, actuarial and the rest of our functions to follow on a similar trajectory – if on a somewhat elongated timeline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Leapfrog<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Ok, you say, so incumbents are encumbered, and the gap between Lemonade and the establishment is set to expand, not contract. Cool. But what about the AI-native startups of the future? If AI will write code for a fraction of the cost it took Lemonade to code its systems, what\u2019s to stop an entrepreneur in a few years\u2019 time\u2013unencumbered by 100 years of legacy\u2013from instructing an AI to \u2018vibe-code a complete knockoff of the Lemonade system\u2019?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nothing. But it will take a lot more than knocking off our software to replicate Lemonade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Think about it: cloned software won\u2019t get our imaginary entrepreneur licensed in demanding jurisdictions like the EU, NY and CA, nor reinsured by the most trusted names in the industry. They cannot vibe their way to the capital required to stand up an insurance company, nor to a brand consumers know and trust with their most treasured assets. Without licenses, backers, capital, and trust, software is useless.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And then there\u2019s data. Just as Waze gets better the more traffic patterns it ingests and the more route permutations it trials, so Lemonade\u2019s software grew big and strong on a diet of user traffic and field tests. In the past decade we’ve conducted thousands<\/em> of product A\/B tests, each on about thirty thousand<\/em> customers; we tested some fifty thousand<\/em> variations of ads and creative on about one hundred million<\/em> people; and we tracked over ten million<\/em> customer journeys alongside tens of millions<\/em> of customer inquiries. All told, we’ve painstakingly amassed over ten billion<\/em> data points with which to feed our models. Our decade of proprietary, fine-grained data is embedded into how we\u2019ve configured every button, ad, screen, and pathway in our system\u2013but is beyond the reach of a vibe-coded doppelganger. There\u2019s simply no shortcut to that level of performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And user experience and funnel optimization are the easy part; when you turn to pricing and underwriting, it gets far worse (or much better!). Only about 6% of Home and Car customers file a claim in a given year, while fewer than 2% of Renters\u2019 do. That means it takes millions of policies to gather enough exposure features\u2014and years of claims history\u2014before a machine-learning model can reliably detect and weight the predictors. We\u2019ve harvested over a trillion<\/em> exposure data points and processed millions<\/em> of claims, and it is their multivariate interactions that form the very core of our system\u2019s intelligence. Without ten years at the school of hard knocks, Lemonade couldn\u2019t do what it does today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That was precisely the logic behind our purchase of Metromile three years ago. In my blog post<\/a> announcing the transaction I wrote that \u201cThe most vulnerable time in the life of an insurance product is during its early years, before data accumulate\u201d, and that it was Metromile\u2019s \u201cdecade-long head start, in combination with the Lemonade tech stack, that holds the promise of boosting Lemonade Car to the vanguard of car insurance.\u201d A great tech stack without great data, is as useful as a car without an engine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

10 Years In, 10 Years Out<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

I say all of this with conviction, but also with an awareness of just how unpredictable things are going to get. We are headed towards a future where intelligence is ostensibly free and infinite, and the blast from that intelligence explosion will upend everything we think we know about education, taxation, labor, meaning, abundance, inequality, and just about everything else. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have reason to believe we understand the coming wave better than most of our industry, and are best placed to ride it, but we are also determined to remain open-minded, curious, agile and humble.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s how we think about it: While it\u2019s fairly straightforward to pocket a billiard ball by striking the white ball at it, it\u2019s harder to create a chain reaction (white\u279cblue\u279cred\u279cpocket), and the difficulty compounds. I\u2019ve heard it said that a chain of 8 balls leaves so little margin for error that you\u2019d have to take into account the gravitational pull of bystanders in the room, while a 13 ball chain requires accounting for every atom in the universe. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This urban legend makes concrete the difficulty of planning too many steps ahead, when there\u2019s uncertainty around each step and errors compound. In our Founders\u2019 Letter<\/a>, published as part of our IPO 5 years ago, we explained our approach to pioneering under conditions of uncertainty:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe are committed to planning, but not to plans. Uncharted territory is just that: we have state-of-the-art kit, an intrepid team and an ambitious destination, but no map. So we explore, probe, and course correct. We think strategically, but are opportunistically opportunistic.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

So we\u2019ll stay Bayesian\u2014rolling each fresh claim, click, and customer conversation into our priors, recalibrating the odds before we line up the next shot. This isn\u2019t just corporate philosophy; it\u2019s our competitive advantage. While incumbents \u2018dabble\u2019 in AI with committee-driven caution, we update our models in real-time. While they wait for \u2018clearer ROI,\u2019 we compound our advantage with every interaction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ten years in, that habit has transformed hunches and hypotheses into battle-tested capabilities. Ten years out, we expect it will propel us faster still, enabling us to 10x our business while barely growing our expense base. That\u2019s our strategy, that\u2019s our edge\u2013and that\u2019s exactly how we plan to win.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

July 1, 2015, was our first day as Lemonade employees, and the start of an incredible journey for Shai, myself and our founding team. Five years later, on July 2, 2020, Lemonade IPO\u2019d and LMND was born. Today\u2019s double anniversary \ud83e\udd42 feels like the perfect moment to ask: Has our strategy delivered the edge we […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":23543,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,10],"tags":[],"puppies_section":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-23374","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-lemonade101","8":"category-news","9":"post-hentry"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLemonade Turns 10 - Lemonade Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Celebrating Lemonade\u2019s 10-year journey, with a look back on how our AI-first strategy drove success from startup to IPO.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lemonade.com\/blog\/lemonade-turns-ten\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Lemonade Turns 10\ud83e\udd42\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Celebrating Lemonade\u2019s 10-year journey, with a look back on how our AI-first strategy drove success from startup to IPO.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lemonade.com\/blog\/lemonade-turns-ten\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Lemonade Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/Lemonade\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-07-01T08:34:25+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-07-01T11:59:39+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lemonade.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Daniel-and-Shai-on-camera-1.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"628\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Daniel Schreiber\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Lemonade Turns 10\ud83e\udd42\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Celebrating Lemonade\u2019s 10-year journey, with a look back on how our AI-first strategy drove success from startup to IPO.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lemonade.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Daniel-and-Shai-on-camera-1.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@daschreiber\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@lemonade_inc\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Daniel Schreiber\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"11 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lemonade.com\\\/blog\\\/lemonade-turns-ten\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lemonade.com\\\/blog\\\/lemonade-turns-ten\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Daniel Schreiber\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lemonade.com\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/124a6b9b02ded1236b63a3dabb69293a\"},\"headline\":\"Lemonade Turns 10\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-07-01T08:34:25+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-07-01T11:59:39+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lemonade.com\\\/blog\\\/lemonade-turns-ten\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":2218,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lemonade.com\\\/blog\\\/lemonade-turns-ten\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lemonade.com\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/07\\\/Lemonade-turns-10.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Lemonade101\",\"news\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lemonade.com\\\/blog\\\/lemonade-turns-ten\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lemonade.com\\\/blog\\\/lemonade-turns-ten\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lemonade.com\\\/blog\\\/lemonade-turns-ten\\\/\",\"name\":\"Lemonade Turns 10 - 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